This week, the markets are entering a phase of extreme volatility. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shattered the usual patterns: oil and gold are setting new targets, completely ignoring technical analysis. The main question of the week is whether the Fed can tame inflation, or if Wednesday’s CPI data will force the dollar to reassess all local trends. Amidst price gaps and sharp, impulsive moves, discipline is your only asset that cannot be preserved.
Japan
11:50 p.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). (Forecast: 0.1%; Previous: -0.6%). This is a critical report for the yen. If the Japanese economy shows higher-than-expected growth readings, it may provide the Central Bank with justification for policy tightening. Amid expectations of USD/JPY interventions, this data could trigger a sharp appreciation of the JPY.
China
3:00 a.m. GMT: Trade Balance (February). (Forecast: 175.0B; Previous: 114.1B). A significant surge in the trade surplus is expected. Strong data from China typically supports commodity currencies (AUD, NZD) and may provide localized support to the oil market.
United States
2:00 p.m. GMT: Existing Home Sales (February). This is a key gauge of the health of the American consumer.
8:30 p.m. GMT: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock. Against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, any inventory figures will be amplified by a geopolitical coefficient. Expect high turbulence in oil contracts.
Germany
7:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (Feb). (Forecast: 0.2%). This serves as a precursor to inflationary pressure within the Eurozone.
United States — KEY EVENT OF THE WEEK
12:30 p.m. GMT: Inflation Data Cluster (CPI) (February). (Forecast Year-over-Year: 2.5%; Previous: 2.4%). The market is anticipating an acceleration in inflation. If the figures exceed forecasts (Core CPI > 0.3%), the US dollar may be propelled toward a rally, while stock indices like the S&P 500 may experience a continued decline.
2:30 p.m. GMT: EIA Official Crude Oil Data.
United Kingdom
9:30 a.m. GMT: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The pound is currently in a risk zone. Any comments regarding interest rates amid a volatile market could push GBP/USD toward new local lows.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. (Forecast: 216K). This is a traditional weekly test of labor market resilience.
United Kingdom
7:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Month-over-Month) (January). (Forecast: 0.2%). The first growth assessment of the new year.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3 — Final) and Core PCE (January). The latter is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The alignment of GDP and PCE data will determine the sentiment with which major players head into the weekend. Expect either a profit-taking phase or a sharp continuation of the week's trends.
The Wednesday factor: Wednesday will emerge as a Day X. The US inflation data to be released at 12:30 p.m. GMT represents a point of no return for most positions. Consider taking partial profits or moving your stop-loss orders to breakeven before the news release.
The yen and interventions: USD/JPY is trading at historical highs. Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan can intervene in the market at any time, especially following the GDP release. Do not trade the yen without placing a stop-loss order!
Oil market storm: Due to events in the Middle East, technical levels in oil are frequently broken out by sharp impulses. Trade with smaller lot sizes to weather the volatility noise.
Friday 13th factor: Do not look for mysticism. Keep your eyes open for liquidity instead. US GDP on Friday may trigger position closures by large funds. Be prepared for sharp reversals toward the end of the American session.
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