The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure amid a strengthening US dollar and declining investor appetite for risky assets.
Possible technical scenarios:
As evidenced by the daily chart, EUR/USD continues to weaken within a downtrend, testing the support area of the 1.1494–1.1788 sideways range. Within the descending channel, the pair still has room to move toward the next downside target at 1.1399.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The euro remains under pressure as the US dollar strengthens, supported by last week’s “hawkish” rate cut from the Federal Reserve, during which the central bank signaled that its easing cycle may be paused.
Despite weaker US manufacturing data — with the ISM PMI for October dropping to 48.7 — the dollar remains resilient, buoyed by fading expectations of another policy easing in December. Fed officials have expressed mixed views: some advocate caution, while others argue that current policy may already be overly restrictive.
In the eurozone, final HCOB PMI data for manufacturing came in at 50.0, suggesting that the sector’s decline has halted, though there are still no signs of a sustained recovery. Markets are now awaiting ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech later today, but significant new policy guidance is unlikely. Given the divergence between the Fed’s and ECB’s policy outlooks, the euro remains vulnerable to further dollar strength.
Intraday technical picture:
According to the 4H chart, EUR/USD continues to test support around 1.1494. That being said, the ongoing downward momentum creates the potential for a breakout and consolidation below this level, which could open the way toward the next target at 1.1399.
The pound sterling is trading under pressure against the US dollar amid the strengthening of the US currency and growing concerns over budget risks in the United Kingdom.
Possible technical scenarios:
As we can see on the daily chart, GBP/USD has broken out support at 1.3147 and consolidated beneath it, opening the path toward the next downside target at 1.2862, with significant room for further decline.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Selling pressure on the pound intensified after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves warned of a potential tax increase in the autumn budget to cover a £22 billion deficit, along with higher borrowing costs caused by the slow pace of inflation reduction.
Investors are cautiously evaluating the Bank of England’s next steps ahead of Thursday’s meeting. While the key interest rate is expected to remain at 4%, uncertainty persists regarding the timing of a possible rate cut due to ongoing inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is strengthening amid declining expectations for a December Fed rate cut — the probability of such a move has dropped to 67% from 94% a week earlier. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remark that “no decision has been made yet” for December is supporting demand for the dollar and adding downward pressure on GBP/USD.
Intraday technical picture:
Given the unfolding situation on the 4H chart, 1.3147 is confirmed as a resistance level, with ample room remaining for a continued decline toward support at 1.2862.
The Japanese yen is strengthening amid rising global demand for safe-haven assets and renewed concerns about potential currency intervention by the Bank of Japan.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, USD/JPY failed to overcome 154.31 and has retreated toward support at 153.19. If this horizontal level fails too, this would open the way for a further decline toward 151.53.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The yen received support from hawkish remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who signaled the possibility of a rate hike in either December or January.
That being said, the potential for sustained yen appreciation remains limited by lingering uncertainty over the exact timing of the Bank of Japan’s next move and expectations that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will maintain a broadly accommodative fiscal stance. These factors reduce the likelihood of an immediate tightening of monetary conditions.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is supported by fading expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell stated that additional policy easing is “not guaranteed.” Against this backdrop, USD/JPY continues to hover near its February highs, though speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities could limit further yen weakness.
Intraday technical picture:
The 4H chart shows that, if support at 151.53 holds, the pair may continue to trade sideways within the 151.53–154.35 range for some time.
The USD/CAD pair reached a new seven-month high amid increased demand for safe-haven assets and a broad decline in risk appetite.
Possible technical scenarios:
From the look of things on the daily chart, it’s safe to say that USD/CAD remains in an uptrend and is approaching resistance within the channel. The next upside target lies at 1.4179
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Market sentiment is being shaped by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December following hawkish comments from Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair emphasized that further monetary easing “is not a foregone conclusion,” strengthening the US dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher.
The greenback is also supported by a global drop in risk appetite. Stock indices are retreating, and investors are shifting toward safer assets. Amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US budget crisis and weakening global industrial activity, demand for the dollar as a reserve currency remains strong, increasing pressure on commodity-linked currencies.
At the same time, the Canadian dollar is weighed down by falling oil prices, the country’s main export commodity. Crude prices declined amid expectations that OPEC+ may raise production in December. The combination of weakness in the oil market and growing demand for the US dollar provides firm support for the USD/CAD pair, leaving room for further strengthening in the short term.
Intraday technical picture:
Given the ongoing developments on the 4H USD/CAD chart, the pair still has room to advance toward 1.4108, and a confirmed breakout above this level could open the path to the next upside target at 1.4179.
Gold prices are consolidating below the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce amid a mix of opposing market factors.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, prices are holding below the $4,000 psychological level, and failure to overcome it could trigger a pullback toward the support at 3873.23, and potentially further down to 3662.96.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
ЗGold continues to trade under the influence of mixed signals, which are keeping the metal in a consolidation phase. On one hand, rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over a prolonged US government shutdown are fueling demand for safe-haven assets, providing support to prices.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone is limiting upside momentum. Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion strengthened the US dollar and put additional pressure on non-yielding gold.
As a result, gold remains in consolidation after its recent pullback from record highs. The metal’s near-term trajectory will largely depend on developments surrounding the US budget negotiations, remarks from Fed officials, and broader market sentiment toward risk assets.
Intraday technical picture:
As evidenced by the 4H chart, an alternative technical scenario is emerging — an ascending triangle pattern is forming just below the $4,000 level. If confirmed, this setup typically suggests a potential breakout to the upside, with room for a short-term rise toward $4,150 per ounce.
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