The last week’s surge of the U.S. dollar knocked the EUR/USD pair down. That being said, the price reversed upward on Tuesday, after Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, eased the market players’ fears about the continued aggressive policy.
Possible technical scenarios:
The weakening of EUR/USD was stopped by the local support level at 1.0661 which is marked with a green dotted line. To continue the recovery toward 1.0958, the quotes have to overcome the resistance at 1.0808.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The current trading week’s news background has been relatively uneventful. However, the market players may keep a close eye on the releases on Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT as we are expecting the weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the United States. The figures are projected at 190,000 claims against 183,000 a week earlier.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart, the EUR/USD pair is consolidating below the resistance of the 1.0661 - 1.0760 local range between the two green dotted lines. The sideways dynamics may continue if the quotes fail to exit the sideways range upwards. Now if the price consolidates above 1.0760, this will enable it to put the strength of the 1.0808 horizontal line to the test.
Amidst the Fed's interest rate decision and unexpectedly strong U.S. employment rate figures, the previous week caused the GBP/USD to drop. However, the quotes managed to move towards recovery, as the market players’ fears about the Fed's tighter policy lessened.
Possible technical scenarios:
Against this backdrop, the GBP/USD pair is recovering cautiously from the support level at 1.1934. If the price manages to overcome the immediate resistance at 1.2146, 1.2410 will serve as the next growth target.
Now if the price breaks out the support at 1.1934, the uptrend reversal scenario against the double top pattern in the 1.1934 - 1.2410 range may work out.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The latest quarterly UK GDP figures that will be released on Friday at 7:00 am GMT may have a local impact on the pound sterling until the end of the week. The GDP YoY is expected to demonstrate 0.4% growth in contrast to 1.9% earlier. The quarter-over-quarter growth is expected to be zero as compared to the previous 0.3% decline. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar dynamics may be affected by Initial Jobless Claims in the United States which will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. 190 thousand claims are expected against 183 thousand a week earlier.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart, the GBP/USD pair still has some movement range toward resistance at 1.2146, which can both reverse the price and pave the way for further growth in case of the level breakout.
As the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates and reported that it had no intentions to pause further tightening of monetary policy, the Australian dollar got an expected boost.
The U.S. dollar also lost some of its last week’s growth, which generally kept the AUD/USD pair up.
Possible technical scenarios:
An uptrend has formed on the AUD/USD daily chart, which technically creates prerequisites for the price’s gradual recovery toward the medium-term target at 0.7283. At the same time, there are intermediate levels at 0.6967, 0.7066, and 0.7138 in its way. Keep in mind that a pullback is possible from each of these levels.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The Australian dollar got a boost this week as a result of the RBA’s rhetoric. Now the way the U.S. dollar can react to the Initial Jobless Claims may have a certain impact on the pair until the end of the week. The figures released on Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT are expected to demonstrate an increase in the Initial Jobless Claims by 190,000 against 183,000 a week earlier.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart, the AUD/USD pair is trying to consolidate above 0.6970. If the price succeeds at that, the resistance at 0.7066 will serve as the next growth target.
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