What’s Ahead: Weekly Macroeconomic Calendar for July 28-August 1, 2025

The upcoming week may not look event-heavy in terms of quantity, but it’s packed with potential for volatility, especially midweek. Market attention will center on rate decisions from the Fed and Bank of Canada, along with crucial GDP and labor market data from the United States and other countries. Wednesday is expected to be particularly impactful for currency trends.

Monday, July 28

Canada:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Wholesale Sales (Month-over-Month) (June). Previous: 0.1%. This release will provide insights into Canada’s wholesale trade sector.

Tuesday, July 29

United States:
● 12:00 p.m. GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (July). Forecast: 95.9 / Previous: 93.0. A stronger reading could boost the USD as it reflects growing consumer optimism.
● 2:00 p.m. GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (June). Forecast: 7.49M / Previous: 7.77M. A decline may suggest softening in the U.S. labor market.

Wednesday, July 30

Australia:
● 1:30 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Forecast: 0.8% / Previous: 0.9%. Slowing inflation could put pressure on the AUD.

Germany:
● 8:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Forecast: -0.1% / Previous: 0.4%. A potential contraction may raise recession concerns and weigh on the EUR.

Eurozone:
● 8:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Forecast: -0.1% / Previous: 0.4%. A similar scenario could amplify EUR weakness.

United States:
● 12:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (July). Forecast: 82K / Previous: -33K. Job growth could raise expectations for Friday’s NFP and support the USD.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Forecast: 2.4% / Previous: -0.5%. A strong rebound would be highly supportive of the USD.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: -3.17M. This report could drive oil prices and impact oil-linked currencies.
● 6:00 p.m. GMT: Fed Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 4.50% / Previous: 4.50%. Markets expect rates to stay steady, but all eyes will be on the Fed’s tone.
● 6:30 p.m. GMT: FOMC Press Conference. The Fed Chair’s remarks could significantly influence the USD and broader markets.

Canada:
● 11:45 p.m. GMT: Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 2.75% / Previous: 2.75%. Rates likely unchanged, so focus will be on the central bank’s guidance.

Thursday, July 31

China:
● 1:30 a.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (July). Forecast: 49.7 / Previous: 49.7. A reading below 50 points to continued contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Japan:
● 3:00 a.m. GMT: Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 0.50% / Previous: 0.50%. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its soft monetary policy.

Germany:
● 12:00 p.m. GMT: CPI (Month-over-Month) (July). Forecast: 0.2% / Previous: 0.0%. An uptick in inflation could influence EUR dynamics.

United States:
● 12:30 p.m.: Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (June). Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.2%. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a higher print may support the USD.

Friday, August 1

United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month) (July). Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.2%. An increase would suggest wage-driven inflation pressure.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Nonfarm Payrolls (July). Forecast: 108K / Previous: 147K. A slowdown in job creation could weigh on the USD.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (July). Forecast: 4.2% / Previous: 4.1%. A higher rate may dampen USD sentiment.

Tips for Traders

● This week is set to bring high volatility, with Wednesday standing out as the most intense day. That’s when both the Fed and Bank of Canada will announce their rate decisions, followed by the FOMC press conference.
● Keep a close eye on USD and CAD currency pairs (like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD), as they’re likely to experience the most significant moves. GBP/USD could also be active due to Bailey’s remarks, and AUD/USD may react to the Australian inflation figures.
● Friday will be another key day with the release of the full US labor market report (NFP). Expect sharp price swings, stick closely to your risk management plan, and make the most of the market setups.