The new trading week of December is shaping up to be highly significant for assessing the state of the global economy and the direction of monetary policy among major central banks. Market attention will center on PMI readings from the United States, China, and the Eurozone, alongside key inflation and unemployment figures from the Eurozone and crucial GDP reports from Australia and the Eurozone. A key highlight will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which could set the tone not only for the US dollar but for global markets overall.
United States:
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (November). Forecast: 51.9; Previous: 52.5. Critical for the USD! This indicator reflects conditions in the US manufacturing sector. A sharper-than-expected decline may weaken the dollar by signaling slowing economic momentum.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Manufacturing PMI (November). Forecast: 49.0; Previous: 48.7. Critical for the USD! A broader and more influential gauge of industrial health. A reading below 50 signals contraction and can lead to a notable market reaction.
United States:
● 1:00 a.m. GMT: Fed Chair Powell’s Speech. Critical for the USD and global markets! Powell’s remarks on inflation, labor market conditions, or the interest rate outlook can trigger significant volatility across currencies, equities, and commodities.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (September). Previous: 7.227M. Critical for the USD! Reflects labor demand. Elevated job openings highlight labor market tightness, supporting a more hawkish Fed stance and potentially strengthening the dollar.
United Kingdom:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: BoE Financial Stability Report. Critical for the GBP! While not a direct interest-rate tool, this report provides risk assessments for the UK’s financial system, shaping market sentiment toward the pound.
Eurozone:
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Year-over-Year) (November). Forecast: 2.1%; Previous: 2.1%. Critical for the EUR! A key indicator of inflation trends. Higher-than-expected results could strengthen the euro by reinforcing price pressure concerns.
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (October). Forecast: 6.3%; Previous: 6.3%. Critical for the EUR! Stable or improving labor market conditions may lend modest support to the euro.
Australia:
● 12:30 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3). Forecast: 0.7%; Previous: 0.6%. Critical for the AUD! GDP growth reinforces the strength of the Australian economy and may support the Australian dollar.
China:
● 1:45 a.m. GMT: Caixin Services PMI (November). Forecast: 51.9; Previous: 52.6. Critical for AUD, NZD, and commodities! A key indicator of China’s services sector, influencing Asian market sentiment and commodity-linked currencies.
Eurozone:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: S&P Global Composite PMI (November). Forecast: 52.4; Previous: 52.4. Critical for the EUR! Stable or rising PMI data could offer support to the euro, suggesting resilience in economic activity.
United Kingdom:
● 9:30 a.m. GMT: Composite PMI (November). Forecast: 50.5; Previous: 50.5. Critical for the GBP! A stable reading may lend modest support by indicating steady business conditions.
United States:
● 1:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Non-Farm Payrolls (November). Forecast: 19K; Previous: 42K. Critical for the USD! Viewed as a precursor to official NFP data. A weaker-than-expected result may pressure the dollar.
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Services PMI (November). Forecast: 55.0; Previous: 55.0. Critical for the USD! A consistently strong reading signals a healthy services sector, supporting USD sentiment.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (November). Forecast: 52.0; Previous: 52.4. Critical for the USD! A major indicator of service-sector health. A lower-than-expected figure could weigh on the dollar.
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: 2.774M. Important for Brent & WTI! This weekly release typically drives volatility in global energy markets.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 220K; Previous: 216K. Important for the USD! A weekly measure of labor market conditions. Rising claims may signal weakening employment trends and negatively impact the dollar.
Canada:
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: Ivey PMI (November). Forecast: 53.6; Previous: 52.4. Important for the CAD! A stronger-than-expected print could support the Canadian dollar by signaling improving business activity.
Eurozone:
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q3). Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.2%. Important for the EUR! If the data confirms the expected growth rate, it may offer moderate support to the euro by signaling ongoing economic stability within the region.
United States:
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (September). Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.2%. Important for the USD! As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, this indicator plays a central role in shaping interest rate expectations. A surprise may influence USD volatility.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: Core PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) (September). Forecast: 2.9%; Previous: 2.9%. Important for the USD! This annual measure of core inflation is crucial for evaluating medium-term price dynamics and assessing the Fed’s future policy direction.
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