This trading week was relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic events. Most reports matched forecasts, so market reactions were muted. The most active day was Thursday, thanks to the ECB meeting and US inflation and labor market data, but even here, no surprises emerged, so traders’ attention shifted to the technical picture.
China:
● Trade Balance (August). Actual figure: 102.33B. Forecast: 99.40B. Previous: 98.24B. Data came in above forecasts, showing strong export performance, which could support global market sentiment.
Germany:
● Trade Balance (July). Actual figure: 14.7B. Forecast: 15.7B. Previous: 14.9B. The readings were slightly below forecast, but overall still strong. No major effect on the euro.
United States:
● API Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles. Actual figure: 1.250M. Previous: 0.622M. Stockpile growth put pressure on oil prices.
United States:
●Producer Price Index (PPI) (Month-over-Month) (August). Actual figure: -0.1%. Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.7%. The PPI is a key signal for future inflation trends. This report came in below expectations, suggesting that inflationary pressures in the region are easing.
●Crude Oil Stockpiles. Actual figure: 3.939M. Forecast: -1.900M. Previous: 2.415M. This data usually has a direct impact on oil prices. An increase in reserves put pressure on quotes, pushing them lower.
Eurozone:
● Deposit Rate (September). Actua figurel: 2.00%. Forecast: 2.00%. Previous: 2.00%.
● Interest Rate Decision (September). Actual figure: 2.15%. Forecast: 2.15%. Previous: 2.15%.
The ECB delivered no surprises. At the press conference, no clear signals about tightening or easing monetary policy were given, leaving the markets without a fresh driver.
United States:
● Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (August). Actual figure: 0.3%. Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.2%.
● CPI (Year-over-Year) (August). Actual figure: 2.9%. Forecast: 2.9%. Previous: 2.7%.
US inflation data plays a key role in shaping expectations for the Fed's next moves. This time, the numbers were slightly better than before, but it’s still unclear how much they’ll influence future policy. For now, experts expect just one rate cut in September, as previously predicted.
● Initial Jobless Claims. Actual figure: 263K. Forecast: 234K. Previous: 237K. A higher-than-expected reading pressured the dollar.
United Kingdom:
● GDP (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual figure: 0.0%. Forecast: 0.0%. Previous: 0.4%. Flat growth met expectations, limiting upside for GBP.
Germany:
● CPI (Month-over-Month) (August). Actual: 0.1%. Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.3%. A decline in inflation hints at weakening eurozone dynamics, potentially pushing the ECB towards more aggressive actions.
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