Unlike the previous week, this one was less intense, but several data points still had an impact on price movements. The most notable developments came from Europe and the United States, accompanied by a sharp decline in oil inventories, which provided a significant boost to oil prices.
United States:
● FOMC Speeches from Williams, Hammack, and Barkin. Federal Reserve representatives agreed that the recent 25-basis-point rate cut was justified. That being said, their views on the path of future monetary policy diverged. Even Fed Chair Powell's remarks on Tuesday failed to offer further clarity.
Eurozone:
● Manufacturing PMI (September). Actual figure: 49.5 / Previous: 50.7 / Forecast: 50.7.
● S&P Global Composite PMI (September). Actual figure: 51.2 / Previous: 51.1 / Forecast: 51.0.
The data exceeded expectations, suggesting that the eurozone economy is demonstrating greater resilience to new US tariffs than anticipated. This supported the euro in the short term. However, following last week's USD weakness, the EUR rally stalled. Bullish attempts repeatedly lost momentum.
United States:
● Manufacturing PMI (September). Previous: 51.8 / Forecast: 53.0. Manufacturing data in the US came in slightly below expectations.
● Services PMI (September). Actual figure: 53.9 / Previous: 54.0 / Forecast: 54.5.
Despite weaker-than-expected data, the dollar held firm. In fact, the EUR/USD pair began to retreat.
United States:
●New Home Sales (August). Actual figure: 800K / Previous: 651K / Forecast: 652K. The housing market data exceeded expectations, offering additional support to the dollar.
●Crude Oil Inventories. Actual figure: -0.607M / Previous: -9.285M. This week marked the largest drop in oil inventories in seven weeks. This lifted oil prices, with Brent crude climbing 1.6% during the trading session.
Switzerland:
● Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision (Q3). Actual figure: 0.0% / Forecast: 0.00% / Previous: 0.00%. The central bank left its rate unchanged, in line with expectations. As a result, USD/CHF remained largely stable.
United States:
● GDP (Q2). Actual figure: 3.8% / Previous: 3.3% / Forecast: 3.3%. The stronger-than-expected reading reaffirmed strong economic growth and helped the USD resume its rally against the euro.
● Initial Jobless Claims. Actual figure: 218K / Previous: 235K / Forecast: 231K. Labor market data also surprised to the upside, further fueling positive sentiment for the dollar.
● Existing Home Sales (August). Actual figure: 4M / Previous: 3.96M / Forecast: 4.01M.
Overall, Thursday delivered a solid batch of economic indicators from the US, reinforcing dollar strength across the board.
Japan:
● Tokyo Core CPI (Year-over-Year) (September). Actual figure: 2.5% / Previous: 2.8% / Forecast: 2.5%. This early inflation gauge came in worse than expected, putting pressure on the yen.
United States:
● Core PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) (August). Actual figure: 2.5% / Previous: 2.9%. This is one of the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicators.
● Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (August). Actual figure: 0.2% /Forecast: 0.2% / Previous: 0.3%. The monthly inflation trend, also a key metric for the Fed, could influence USD volatility.
The data from the US matched forecasts, so markets didn't react with strong movements.
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